Black Friday & Cyber Monday 2025: eCommerce Trends That Will Define the Holiday Season

Every year, Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) reset the benchmarks for eCommerce. In 2024, Australians spent record amounts online, but the way they shopped was just as important as how much they spent.

2025 is set to be even more competitive. Shoppers are using AI tools to find deals, brands are starting their holiday campaigns earlier, and consumer expectations are higher than ever.

As Klaviyo’s 2025 BFCM Forecast reveals, this year isn’t just about discounts, it’s about connection, personalisation, and timing. At Picos, we take these insights further, helping eCommerce brands turn trends into strategies that actually convert.

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1. Holiday Shopping Starts Earlier Than Ever

The days of waiting for Black Friday are gone. According to Klaviyo, 20% of consumers now make their first holiday purchase between June and August. Gen Z is leading the charge, with nearly a third saying they shop well before BFCM.

👉 What this means for brands:

• Start building anticipation campaigns early (August and September, not just November).
• Use pre-BFCM Meta campaigns to warm audiences before discounts drop.
• Launch early-access offers for VIPs and email subscribers.
  
  

At Picos, we build full-funnel strategies that carry momentum across the entire holiday season, not just one weekend.

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2. AI is Changing How People Shop

Over 54% of shoppers plan to use AI tools to help with their holiday purchases this year, from product discovery to price comparison. Even more telling, 62% prefer AI recommendations over speaking to a sales associate.

👉 What this means for brands:

• Optimise your product feed and ad creative for searchability and clarity.
• Use AI-driven segmentation in Klaviyo to deliver smarter email campaigns.
• Invest in creatives that cut through, if AI delivers options, your brand needs to be the one they notice.
  
  

We help brands stay ahead by combining data-driven segmentation with thumb-stopping creative so you’re not just in the mix, you’re leading it.

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3. Email & SMS Remain the MVPs

Klaviyo’s data confirms what we already know: owned channels are the most reliable revenue drivers during BFCM. But blasting discount emails won’t cut it anymore.

👉 Winning strategies include:

• Teaser flows that build hype weeks before BFCM.
• Segmented offers based on customer behaviour (browse, abandon cart, loyalty status).
• Post-BFCM retention campaigns that convert one-time shoppers into long-term customers.

Picos pairs design-led creative with data-backed strategy to make sure your emails don’t just get opened, they convert.

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4. Paid Ads Win Attention, Creative Keeps It

BFCM is the most expensive time of year to run ads. CPMs skyrocket, competition floods the feed, and attention spans shrink.

👉 How to break through the noise:

• Lean on short, scroll-stopping video assets.
• Align ad creative with email campaigns for a consistent experience.
• Use smart budget allocation to focus on highest-intent audiences.

Our team has managed millions in ad spend, we know how to scale without burning budget when every brand is fighting for clicks.

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5. Retention is the Real Growth Driver

A big BFCM doesn’t just mean a spike in sales, it should set the stage for growth into 2026.

👉 What retention looks like:

• Strong welcome flows that nurture new buyers.
• Post-purchase emails that build loyalty and brand love.
• Campaigns that transform one-time shoppers into repeat customers.

The brands that win are the ones that think long-term, not just about “Black Friday weekend.”

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Your BFCM Strategy Starts Now

The 2025 holiday season will be louder, smarter, and more competitive than ever. Klaviyo’s insights show where consumer behaviour is heading, but it’s how you execute that counts.

At Picos, we help eCommerce brands scale with a full-service approach:

• Email marketing that drives retention and revenue.
• Meta ads that bring in the right customers.
• Ad creatives that stop thumbs and win attention.
  
  

As Klaviyo agency partners, we turn data into results, so you don’t just survive BFCM, you thrive in it.

👉 Book a strategy call with us today and get your 2025 holiday marketing plan in place.

👉 Or subscribe to Hooked, our email series, for ongoing insights and inspiration.

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